Investec Risk Solutions


Weekly Oil Market Update


Monday, 23 December 2024

Price Table

Source: Investec, Bloomberg

Commoditiy	Price	Weekly Change	50day-Ave	100day-Ave	200day-Ave
Brent ($/b)	72.80	-1.11	73.34	74.74	79.70
US WTI ($/b)	69.33	-1.38	69.68	71.18	75.91
ICE Gasoil ($/MT)	677.25	-8.50	672.05	679.15	727.45
Jet CIF NWE ($/MT)	708.52	-14.38	716.13	722.85	775.74

Crude prices softened over the course of last week trimming the gains of the previous week. The news of additional sanctions on Iran and Russia had boosted crude despite the most recent report from the IEA which once again suggested a large surplus over the course of next year of around 900 kb/d. Starmer announced new sanctions on 20 ships of the shadow fleet hinting at Western countries’ review of sanctions and ways to further restrict Russian revenues supporting their war in Ukraine.

The federal reserve cut interest rates again on Wednesday but reined in the number of cuts they expect to make next year. This could increase concern about oil demand, particularly with continued weakness in China. Oil continued to fall along with global risk assets following the Fed announcement.

Brent back over 73 \$/b this morning after falling to 72 \$/b on Friday and continues to trade in a tight range. A sustained break through the top of this would be needed to confirm that the market was breaking out of this range to the upside. If Brent continues to soften towards the bottom of the range at 70 \$/b we may well see momentum break through the bottom of the range. Light trading over the Christmas and new year period could mean we see some larger moves.

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