| Commoditiy | Price | Weekly Change | 50day-Ave | 100day-Ave | 200day-Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/b) | 61.23 | -1.26 | 63.41 | 65.47 | 66.74 |
| US WTI ($/b) | 57.55 | -1.33 | 59.47 | 61.76 | 63.45 |
| ICE Gasoil ($/MT) | 627.75 | -39.25 | 697.14 | 692.05 | 674.68 |
| Jet CIF NWE ($/MT) | 679.55 | -28.70 | 729.82 | 722.55 | 707.89 |
Brent softened over the last week, falling below the recent lows and breaking 61 \$/b on both Thursday and Friday. Oil prices softened on the initial news of progress in talks on Russia and Ukraine’s next moves, since then further progress has proved difficult. Last week however, it was reported that the US has asked Ukraine to give up Donetsk in the negotiations. This then followed with President Zelensky saying he could allow a vote on whether Ukraine should give up the Donbas region to Russia for peace. Oil fell on this news and led to Brent falling below 61 $\b again. Zelensky is set to meet several European leaders in Berlin today.
The IEA released its monthly oil report last week which showed the IEA’s estimate of what OPEC needs to produce to balance the market (the call on OPEC), falling by 100 kb/d to 26.2 mb/s in 2025 and increasing by a similar amount in 2026, to 25.6 mb/d. This compares to the IEA’s estimate of OPEC’s output of 29 mb/d in November, if this level or production continues it points to a massive surplus of 3 mb/d next year given the estimate for global oil demand in 2026 is 104.8 mb/d.
Brent traded below 60 \$/b briefly on two occasions last week, the lowest it had been since October when it touched 60 \$/b. If the move lower continues 60 \$/b remains a key level to break, and we may see a sharper move lower. If talks between Russia and Ukraine fail, we may see a move higher in which case we could see it head towards the 50-day moving average again at around 63.40 \$/b. If that is broken, we could see a move up through 65 \$/b.
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