| Commoditiy | Price | Weekly Change | 50day-Ave | 100day-Ave | 200day-Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/b) | 101.74 | -3.94 | 92.54 | 91.15 | 86.41 |
| US WTI ($/b) | 98.25 | -3.14 | 86.94 | 87.40 | 81.14 |
| ICE Gasoil ($/MT) | 1,453.50 | -23.00 | 1,311.70 | 1,178.33 | 1,049.70 |
| Jet CIF NWE ($/MT) | 1,510.86 | -32.73 | 1,334.29 | 1,224.26 | 1,139.85 |
Brent crude is trading around 102 \$/b this morning, remaining elevated despite pulling back from last week's peak near 110 \$/b. Markets had initially hoped that talks between Iran and Oman on a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for broader negotiations with the United States. However, those hopes faded when a planned regional meeting was postponed. Iran has since reiterated its long-standing demands, including the removal of the US naval blockade and the release of frozen assets, suggesting that a comprehensive agreement remains some way off. There was some positive news as Saudi Arabia announced that the East West pipeline will partially resume operations, but this does little to resolve the challenge of exporting oil via the Red Sea, where vessels remain exposed to potential Houthi attacks in the Bab al Mandab Strait. Indeed, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis appear to be intensifying, with ballistic missile attacks reported against Riyadh over the weekend, while sporadic attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to underline the fragility of regional energy supply routes.
In addition to developments in the Middle East, markets are also having to contend with disruption stemming from the Russia Ukraine conflict. A refinery in Moscow was reportedly hit by a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes over the weekend, while the US House of Representatives passed legislation that could allow President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying significant volumes of Russian oil, most notably China and India. While the practical implications remain unclear, the proposal has added another layer of uncertainty to global energy markets and future trade flows.
Signs of strain across the global energy system continue to build. Baltic tanker freight rates have risen to record highs, around five times higher than levels seen before the conflict began, reflecting longer shipping routes, reduced vessel availability and heightened security risks. Physical crude markets are also tightening, with premiums for prompt North Sea cargoes widening as buyers compete for readily available supply. Refined products remain particularly strong, with diesel and jet fuel continuing to trade near 200 \$/b, supported by disrupted trade flows, constrained refining capacity and robust demand for middle distillates.
The diplomatic picture remains difficult to interpret. President Trump has alternated between discussing potential talks with Iran and warning of significant military escalation, leaving markets uncertain whether the next major development will be diplomatic progress or renewed conflict he said “Do I want to go in and annihilate them, or do I not” and added “Anything could happen with me”. Then, on Sunday, he said “very big things” are coming and even talked about the possibility of meeting the Iranian President as well as blowing up “the entire nation”. At the same time, US Central Command has reported that crude oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest levels in six months. While this is supportive from a supply perspective, it also highlights how much global energy trade remains dependent on a waterway that continues to face significant geopolitical risks.
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