| Commoditiy | Price | Weekly Change | 50day-Ave | 100day-Ave | 200day-Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/b) | 63.55 | 0.38 | 63.80 | 65.85 | 66.96 |
| US WTI ($/b) | 59.87 | 0.55 | 59.88 | 62.19 | 63.75 |
| ICE Gasoil ($/MT) | 680.25 | -10.25 | 701.24 | 695.64 | 675.43 |
| Jet CIF NWE ($/MT) | 718.62 | 1.27 | 732.35 | 724.74 | 708.07 |
Brent is trading around 63.70 \$/b this morning, with little movement over the last week. OPEC+ met the previous weekend and confirmed they are maintaining their current strategy, to pause production increases over the first quarter of 2026. The estimates of current production less current demand suggest the market is currently in surplus. Yet the market has held steady over 60 \$/b and the curve remains in backwardation, which is typically seen when the market is not oversupplied. This could be at least partly explained by a build-up of sanctioned barrels. Floating storage in Asia is growing dramatically, and we have seen a large build up of China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is hard to see how much longer this will go on and how these situations can absorb the excess barrels.
One of the big uncertainties is the Russia Ukraine war and how it may continue to impact the oil market. Oil prices softened on the initial news of progress in talks, however, since then further progress have proved difficult. November was in fact a record month in terms of drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, especially Russian refineries. This is likely one of the factors keeping oil prices higher.
Looking to the key levels, the market remains very range bound. Brent is however pushing up on the 50-day moving average again at around 64 \$/b. If that is broken, we could see a move up through 65 \$/b then the 100 and 200 day moving average support levels at 66 and 67 \$/b. Further challenges in the talks to end the war in Ukraine could be a catalyst for that kind of move. On the downside, we have recent lows around 62 \$/b, followed by 60 \$/b and the low of the year around 58 \$/b.
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