| Commoditiy | Price | Weekly Change | 50day-Ave | 100day-Ave | 200day-Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/b) | 63.92 | -0.14 | 65.15 | 66.73 | 67.83 |
| US WTI ($/b) | 59.59 | -0.54 | 61.14 | 63.29 | 64.63 |
| ICE Gasoil ($/MT) | 738.50 | -12.50 | 702.57 | 699.95 | 676.41 |
| Jet CIF NWE ($/MT) | 770.79 | 12.19 | 731.72 | 724.49 | 708.62 |
Oil traded in a more volatile range last week, whipsawing between 62.50 and 65 \$/b. The market had been soft, falling to the bottom oof its range at 62.50 \$/b, following the publication of the Saudi Aramco’s Official Selling Price to Asia for December which was cut by 1.2 \$/b and this led to concerns that Saudi Arabia was having to compete to sell its barrels. On Tuesday the market rallied sharply up over 65 \$/b after news that Indian refineries were abstaining from buying Russian crude following fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers in addition to news of a Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery. This did not last long, and sentiment soured again with Brent falling back towards 62 \$/b until, on Friday, the market rallied again on reports that Iran had seized an oil tanker in the gulf of Oman plus there was news of another Ukrainian attack, this time on the black sea port of Novorossiysk, which led to the market rallying yet again.
Despite these events and these moves in prices Brent remains in a range. It has been constrained by the 50-day moving average just over 65 \$/b. The 50-day moving average has been an important resistance level for Brent that has not been exceeded for a sustained period since July. It has struggled to break higher though this level because the market remains worried about oversupply, something that was emphasised again last week by the IEA’s monthly report highlighting a 4 mb/d oversupply in 2026. The Iranian seizing of a vessel has however taken the market by surprise and brings into question their motive for doing this and if there could be further action. On the downside Brent has found support around 62 \$/b, below that is the 60 \$/b low from October and then the lows of the year around 58 \$/b. It could be developments in other markets that are most likely to bring about further downside in oil, particularly increasing nervousness about the valuations of US equities.
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