Investec Risk Solutions


Weekly Oil Market Update


Monday, 16 February 2026

Price Table

Source: Investec, Bloomberg

Commoditiy	Price	Weekly Change	50day-Ave	100day-Ave	200day-Ave
Brent ($/b)	67.57	-1.47	64.25	64.13	66.06
US WTI ($/b)	62.72	-1.64	60.00	60.10	62.36
ICE Gasoil ($/MT)	669.50	-23.75	654.74	678.68	679.48
Jet CIF NWE ($/MT)	722.30	-21.66	703.70	717.91	714.30

The oil market has continued to gyrate on developments in the discussions between Iran and the US. Last week, following talks with Trump in the US, Netanyahu said that he thought Trump would get a good deal with Iran, the market softened. Trump however the made some less than conciliatory remarks. First saying a change in power in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen” and then suggested the Iranian regime has “talked and talked” for decades. He followed this up with announcing that another aircraft carrier was being sent to the region. Over the weekend Iran’s deputy foreign minister was interviewed by the BBC in Tehran and said the ball was "in America's court to prove that they want to do a deal", adding: "If they are sincere, I'm sure we will be on the road to an agreement."

The next round of indirect talks is being held tomorrow in Geneva mediated by Oman. It is impossible to say at this stage what the outcome will likely be. Looking back to timeline of the previous talks between the US and Iran which started in March 2013:

November 2013, there was an interim agreement reached

January 2014, implementation, Iran limited enrichment and there was some sanctions relief

January 2016, full agreement was finally implemented

There are some key levels in Brent to look out for as the talks take place tomorrow. If we get positive noise from both sides after the meeting and Brent tests downside, then look out for recent lows around 66.50 \$/b and the 200-day moving average at 66.00 \$/b. Below that are the 50 and 100-day moving averages at 63.50 \$/b and 64.00 \$/b area. If the talks end without signs of any progress and each blaming the other, Brent could test 70 \$/b and the high of the year just under 72 \$/b.

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