| Commoditiy | Price | Weekly Change | 50day-Ave | 100day-Ave | 200day-Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/b) | 63.59 | 0.22 | 64.39 | 66.15 | 67.22 |
| US WTI ($/b) | 59.77 | 1.71 | 60.38 | 62.58 | 64.05 |
| ICE Gasoil ($/MT) | 695.25 | -3.75 | 705.22 | 697.54 | 675.93 |
| Jet CIF NWE ($/MT) | 720.69 | 7.55 | 735.42 | 725.98 | 708.16 |
Brent has rallied this morning on rising geopolitical tensions reaching close to 64 \$/b. First, there has been s build-up of US military forces around Venezuela, on Saturday Trump warned that the Venezuelan airspace should be closed. Moving East, two oil tankers of the Russian shadow fleet were sank in the Black Sea after being hit but Ukrainian naval drones. Also in the Black Sea, attacks on Russian port Novorossiysk, have halted deliveries from one of the world’s largest oil pipelines which provides a route to market for the Kazak Tengiz oilfield which can supply over 1 mb/d (approximately 1% of world oil supply). The market had sold off on optimism of progress in the talks between Russia and Ukraine when the initial plan was leaked, it appears finding common ground and further progress is now looking much harder.
The 8 OPEC+ members who agreed to the additional voluntary cuts met over the weekend. As expected, they reaffirmed their commitment to holding until the end of March next year. On Friday we have a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the second and final one of the year. There has not been any sign of comment from members so far in the lead up to that, and the market is not expecting much to come out if, but the meeting will be closely watched for any clues as to how OPEC+ policy might evolve over the coming year.
Despite the market rally Brent remains in the 60 to 65 \$/b range. When Brent sold off last week, it bottomed out around 62 \$/b and above the 60 \$/b support level. This might be a sign Brent has found a base to build from. The 50-day moving average sits at around 64.40 \$/b and has not been broken in any material way since the end of September. A break though this, on the back of geopolitical risk might propel Brent higher, perhaps breaking the 100 and 200-day moving averages on the way up to 70 \$/b. The talks between US and Russia in Moscow this week may provide the impetus Brent needs to break higher.
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