Investec Risk Solutions


Weekly Oil Market Update


Monday, 26 January 2026

Price Table

Source: Investec, Bloomberg

Commoditiy	Price	Weekly Change	50day-Ave	100day-Ave	200day-Ave
Brent ($/b)	65.89	1.95	62.73	63.97	65.75
US WTI ($/b)	61.08	1.64	58.62	60.03	62.24
ICE Gasoil ($/MT)	687.00	35.50	659.15	679.79	673.13
Jet CIF NWE ($/MT)	734.00	31.55	700.99	716.46	707.70

Brent has been trading over 66 $/b this morning, its highest since concerns about Iran peaked earlier this month. Drivers behind this might include:

• A production outage at giant Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan. Production had been reduced anyway due to drone attacks affecting the export of crude via Russia into the Black Sea. This latest disruption appears to be due to a problem with electrical power supplies on the field itself. It has apparently been resolved now though.
• A Russian shadow fleet vessel was seized at the end of last week by France in the Mediterranean, which might represent the start of a more assertive approach to the Russian shadow fleet by European nations. However, the BBC reported that since the British government received legal advice supporting the detention of sanctioned vessels, 42 have sailed through the English Channel without being stopped, so the approach still seems to be pretty cautious.
• The EU has now introduced a ban on refined products produced in countries like India, from Russian oil.
• A US naval flotilla is heading to the middle east under Trump’s orders – concern about possible action on Iran
• Heating oil demand in the US raising on cold weather

Brent is clearly benefitting from geopolitical nervousness. Momentum on move up from 63.50 to 65.50 trading range could help it to break through the high of this month at 66.82 \$/b, which might open up the way to a test higher towards 70 \$/b. There would likely need to see clearer signs of actual disruption of sanctioned vessels to sustain rallies. Refined products such as middle distillates like gasoil, jet and diesel, are more sensitive to the sanctioned crude that Brent as they are produced in quantity in Asia from sanctioned crude. It is notable that gasoil, which drives diesel and jet fuel prices, has been strengthening relative to Brent and set a new high of the month last week.

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