The weather has turned colder again, after being very mild at the end of last week, but it has also been windy – boosting renewable generation. The Met Office long range weather forecast indicates that wet and windy weather is possible later in the month. Still, the winter is now easing, days are lengthening and gas inventory withdrawals are slowing down. It looks likely that the low point in inventories will be in the low 30s % full – its currently around 35% full.
After a period of sharp falls in power and gas prices, markets have been firmer this week. The summer 2025 UK gas contract reached a low of 92.50 p/therm on Friday, but has now rallied back over 104 p/therm. This has closed down the discount to Asian LNG prices which had opened up in recent weeks.
Oil, gas and power markets have all become somewhat less strongly influenced by falling US equity markets than they were last week. Whereas US equities continue to react negatively to every new twist and turn in Trump’s trade wars, Brent is back over 70 \$/b after trading close to 78 \$/b last week. This might be in part be because a lot of speculative investor long positions have already been unwound. This is true of European gas markets as it is of oil.
It is also notable that European equity markets have been quite resilient in the face of sharp falls in US markets. This could be because stocks here were not trading on high earnings multiples pumped up by expectations of AI fuelled growth as in the US. In addition, it could be that Trump’s tariffs and the associated uncertainty, are seen to be mainly damaging to the US economy and so there is not the same risk to energy demand in Europe.
The fundamentals will manifest themselves in gas inventory trend over the coming weeks and this. Summer25 and winter25 gas and power prices remain at relatively elevated levels for now.
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£p/therm) | Summer 25 (£p/therm) | Winter 25/26 (£p/therm) | Summer 26 (£p/therm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 104.19 | 102.77 | 104.31 | 82.51 |
| Weekly Change | 4.09 | 2.71 | 1.80 | 3.43 |
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£/MWh) | Summer 25 (£/MWh) | Winter 25/26 (£/MWh) | Summer 26 (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 85.41 | 82.72 | 87.46 | 69.42 |
| Weekly Change | 3.16 | 2.75 | 1.77 | 3.30 |
| Commoditiy | US Gas ($/mmbtu) | Brent ($/b) | EUA (€/MT) | UKA (£/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 4.08 | 70.95 | 68.21 | 40.01 |
| Weekly Change | -0.37 | 1.65 | 0.81 | 1.69 |
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