The continued grid lower in power and gas markets in Europe plateaued over the last week and increased somewhat. Temperatures remain relatively mild and windy, but this is due to change next week. Higher pressure air looks set to build across northern Europe leading to colder temperatures and slower wind speeds coming from the east. The met office long range forecast suggest that temperatures will be colder than average, but milder and windier conditions are possible from the middle of January. This changing outlook has helped to support gas and power prices in Europe.
However, while gas and power market in Europe have been in a downward trend for weeks, LNG prices in Asia had remain stronger – until last week. The front JKM LNG futures contract fell sharply, bringing them back in line with the now lower, European prices.
Overall, the relatively muted reaction to a colder more settled weather forecast, in spite of speculative investors being short in the gas market and the fall in Asia LNG prices, suggests the market remains confident that there will be sufficient supplies of energy in the new year.
This will be the last of these reports until 7th January 2026.
Merry Christmas!
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£p/therm) | Summer 26 (£p/therm) | Winter 26/27 (£p/therm) | Summer 27 (£p/therm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 73.10 | 64.26 | 70.10 | 59.70 |
| Weekly Change | 2.64 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.07 |
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£/MWh) | Summer 26 (£/MWh) | Winter 26/27 (£/MWh) | Summer 27 (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 83.45 | 68.43 | 74.63 | 64.22 |
| Weekly Change | 2.85 | 2.67 | 2.19 | 1.48 |
| Commoditiy | US Gas ($/mmbtu) | Brent ($/b) | EUA (€/MT) | UKA (£/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 3.95 | 60.05 | 84.81 | 62.78 |
| Weekly Change | -0.28 | -1.23 | 0.91 | 6.70 |
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Investec or its Affiliates in relation to the accuracy, reliability, suitability or completeness of any information contained in this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed. This document does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all the information that you may need. Investec gives no undertaking to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update this document or any additional information, or to correct any inaccuracies in it which may become apparent.
This document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances or particular needs of any recipient and it should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement and due diligence. Investec does not offer investment advice or make any investment recommendations. Recipients of this document should seek independent financial advice regarding the appropriateness or otherwise of investing in any investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that past performance is not a guide to future performance, and the value of any investments may fall as well as rise.
Investec expressly reserves the right, without giving reasons therefore, at any time and in any respect, to amend or terminate discussions with the recipient of this document without prior notice and hereby expressly disclaims any liability for any losses, costs or expenses incurred by such recipient.
