Whereas US natural gas prices are rising over fears of a slow-down in the polar vortex and the risk that this could leak cold air into the US, European gas and power prices have been falling even through the same weather event could bring down temperatures here to. Spot gas prices in the UK have fallen sharply to a significant discount to the continent as the market is well supplied here even with the gas interconnectors in maximum export mode. Wind generation has been increasing again and temperatures are mild, adding to the pressure on spot power and gas prices.
Prices, for gas in particular, have been weakening across the curve. The winter 2027 season gas future has bounced off the 78 p/therm area a number of times since mid-October, but this week fell through 77 p/therm, the lowest it has traded since April. Power is also lower, the Winter 2027 baseload contract settled below 76 £/MWh today, the lowest settlement price since August.
For the next few days the weather looks set to remain mild and windy, presumably leading to a continuation of weakness in spot energy markets. For the remainder of the month though, there is possibility of colder, stiller weather reversing that dynamic. The outlook for December is very uncertain, but the met office long range weather forecast suggests it may be unsettled and windy.
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£p/therm) | Summer 26 (£p/therm) | Winter 26/27 (£p/therm) | Summer 27 (£p/therm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 81.25 | 74.41 | 81.67 | 68.49 |
| Weekly Change | -1.76 | -1.73 | -1.99 | -1.58 |
| Commoditiy | Front contract (£/MWh) | Summer 26 (£/MWh) | Winter 26/27 (£/MWh) | Summer 27 (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 81.46 | 70.70 | 79.43 | 66.29 |
| Weekly Change | -1.86 | -0.84 | -1.13 | -1.31 |
| Commoditiy | US Gas ($/mmbtu) | Brent ($/b) | EUA (€/MT) | UKA (£/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 4.51 | 62.75 | 81.91 | 57.58 |
| Weekly Change | 0.27 | -0.77 | 0.42 | 0.23 |
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